We got off easy last year. But the El Niño weather pattern is going away.
In 2009, that pattern was responsible for suppressing hurricane formation. But in early March, water temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean already are going down, and by the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2010 they will be at or below normal levels.
Forecaster Rob Lightbown with Crown Weather Service released his preliminary outlook for the 2010 period on March 2. He says conditions favor a return to a normal or even above-normal hurricane season. "I think the signs and conditions out there right now are pointing to a busy 2010 hurricane season, and a season that is much busier than the 2009 season," he wrote.
Both the European and U.S. National Weather Service projections for El Niño show it disappearing by June. More troubling is the European model forecast of atmospheric pressures in the Atlantic for the first half of the 2010 season. "The forecast calls for well below average pressures during the June to August 2010 timeframe. This is completely opposite the 2009 numbers," said Lightbown.
Hurricane Dolly in 1968 affected Florida’s Atlantic coast. Image courtesy of NOAA.
Last year high pressure in the Atlantic increased wind speed and shear, blowing tropical storms apart before they could become self-sustaining. This year’s prediction of lower pressures means slower winds and reduced shear, and "will also mean more available moisture and in the end, warmer sea surface temperatures." Each of those is an important ingredient for formation of cyclones.
Lightbown said these conditions are similar to those in 1964 and 1998. In 1964, there were 12 named storms and six hurricanes. In 1998 there were 14 named storms and 10 hurricanes. In both 1964 and 1998, three of the hurricanes made landfall in Florida.
Lightbown says of 2010, "Right now, I am going with 13 to 15 named storms, 7 to 8 of those storms becoming hurricanes, and four of those [to] become major hurricanes."
By contrast, in 2009 there were nine named storms and three hurricanes. The first storm of 2010 will be called "Alex."
Lightbown cautions his predictions are preliminary, but suggests homeowners and renters examine their insurance coverage, because once the storms start to blow, underwriters don’t issue policies.
You can read the entire 2010 outlook at crownweather.com.
March 14th 2010 - 12:28PM